A Bad Day for Precious Metals

By: Justin Paone
Gold is presently at $1649.20 and Silver is at $31.06. This time it was silver’s turn to take a beating. Seems like a rather extreme slide. I don’t think the fundamentals that have been driving gold and silver up over the past decade have changed. As far as the near term, this move was rather damaging and could take some time for a rebound. Where it goes and what it does depends on how it’s viewed by investors. The market as a whole is irrational and can be hard to predict. Its mob mentality. When fear takes hold lookout. Rational thinking generally will not take place until sometime after drastic and damaging moves have been taken and pushed as far as they can go. Gold was begging for a correction like this with its recent extreme rise in price. Silver on the other hand has been fairly stable, which makes me think that this whole slide is an extreme reaction. The US dollar has been the one to benefit from all this. I believe though that this is only a temporal rise. Investors are running to it because of a lack of options. The big picture of the dollar is that it’s been on a slow decline for years. Times like these help the dollar, but once the dust settles it’s value begins to sink and gold begins to rise.

Poverty Increasing in America

By: Justin Paone
According to the Census Bureau report released Tuesday, poverty is growing in the US. Almost one out of every six Americans lives below the poverty level. 46.2 million people in the US are now living in poverty. This is the highest number of people living in poverty since the government began tracking poverty levels back in 1959. People earning $11,139 in annual income, or $22,314 for a family of four are considered poverty level. Since the financial crises began in 2008 the percentages of people living in poverty has risen. In 2008 it was 13.2 %, in 2009 it was 14.3 % and in 2010, (which is the latest data) it was 15.1%. Food stamp usage has been on the rise and unemployment remains stubbornly high at 9.1%.

From the looks of it, it seems that poverty has been increasing in momentum ever since we entered the financial crises back in 2008. Even though we technically are not in a recession, on main-street it feels that the recession never truly ended.

Declining Cost of the Median Single Family Home

By: Justin Paone

The chart below (courtesy of Chart of the Day) shows the cost of the median single-family home price divided by the price of one ounce of gold. Put another way, this chart shows us how many ounces of gold it takes to buy the median single-family home. Back in 2001 the median single family home was worth 601 ounces. Today it only takes 94 ounces of gold to buy the same median single family home. The median single family home is in a well defined downtrend at the moment, and it is nearing its 1980 trough.
From a chart analysis view point the 1980 trough that we are near is an important area and could end up being a trend changer. A trough can act as a floor halting a downtrend if the price is above the trough, or it can act as a ceiling, stopping the price from rising, if the price is below it. In this case the price is above the trough. The 1980 trough was where the median single family home value finally bottomed out after a decade of overall declining home values. We could soon see a break in the current downtrend with either a significant bounce upward, or home values going sideways. In either of these two cases the current downtrend would be broken. If it breaks through the trough however the downtrend could continue on. We could even see some accelerated downward price action.

2011 The Year of Extreme Weather

History will not easily forget 2011 weather. As fires rage in Texas burning a record number of houses, Lee simultaneously is bring a second round of flooding to the already water soaked northeast. 2011 started off with heavy snow fall in parts of the nation that led to flooding from the Mississippi, Ohio, Souris and Missouri Rivers. 2011 was also the most deadly year as far as tornadoes go since 1936 with six EF-5 tornadoes that caused an estimated 550 deaths. 2011 has also been the hottest summer for the U.S since the dust bowl days of 1936. Texas has had an average temperature of 86.8 degrees this summer which is not only a state record, but is a national record as well. No other state has had an average temperature this high. Texas was not the only state to break their state records New Mexico, Louisiana and Oklahoma have also suffered their hottest summer this year as well. The wacky weather doesn’t there. California has had is wettest summer ever this year. The books have not closed on this year yet. 2011 hurricane season is looking to be a busy one.

Gold’s Wild Ride

Gold took a tumble today. There is so much uncertainty in the market these days. Just last Friday (September 2 2011) Gold shot up about $50 and was above $1900 and today its down over $50. Its around $1830 at the moment. It takes a savvy trader to be in the markets right now. Silver on the other hand has been pretty stable considering everything that has been happening. Its held up nicely against the wild swings.